Israel’s unprecedented night of airstrikes across Iran may be just what was needed to pull the Middle East back from all-out war.
That might sound odd because for hours, it seems, Israeli jets ranged freely across Iranian airspace, apparently attacking targets and air defences at will in a flagrant violation of Iranian sovereignty and provocation, you might say.
It was, you might have thought, just the sort of escalation to lead to Iran upping the ante and launching thousands of ballistic missiles to rain down on Israel’s towns and cities.
But that is not likely to happen.
Why? Because neither side wants all-out war. For months now, Israel and Iran have been trying to act tough while trying desperately to avoid one. Last night’s operation is no different.
The reasons are clear. Iran cannot afford to take on Israel and possibly America in a fight it could never win. Its economy is in pieces, its proxies and allies are being hammered, and its legitimacy is utterly shredded after brutally crushing internal unrest.
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Israel might have been tempted to pick a bigger fight with the ayatollahs in order to destroy their nuclear weapons programme. But without American military support that would be impossible – and that was ruled out by President Biden early on.
But the risk of a much bigger Iran-Israel war has been very real and very dangerous.
That is because the rules of the Middle Eastern jungle still apply. The most important rule in a neighbourhood this tough: when you are whacked, whack back harder. Failure to do so looks weak and is dangerous.
So when Israel killed Iran’s most important allies, one of them in their own capital, the Iranians looked weak and had to respond. In vengeance for Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, they launched a couple of hundred ballistic missiles at Israel.
Israel’s turn to look weak. It too had to strike back. Iranian ballistic missile onslaughts were beginning to become almost routine.
But in mulling its options, Israel had to choose the Goldilocks option.
Hot enough to teach the Iranians a lesson, not so hot they were made to look even weaker and had to do it all again.
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Ahead of last night’s attacks, the Iranians telegraphed their preference.
Through channels like the New York Times, a number of Iranian officials made it clear an Israeli attack on either oil or atomic facilities would be, well, the nuclear option, likely to provoke another ballistic missile attack big enough to make the first one look like a game of darts.
But strike our military bases, weapons warehouses etc and we might just not do anything in return, the officials were reported to have said.
Music to the ears of Israel’s American allies who have been piling the pressure on Israel’s leader Benjamin Netanyahu not to listen to the hawks in his government advocating the nuclear option.
Be smart, be calculated, was the counsel from Washington.
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Israel appears to have listened and so far the signs from Iran are encouraging too.
One Iranian source has told Sky News Arabia that Tehran is prepared to draw a line under the episode and call it a day.
Iranian state media is staying on message too. The attacks were harmless is the message, our air defences stood up to the test. Iranian state TV is broadcasting pictures of Iranians going to work. “Life goes on as normal,” says the reporter. Move along, nothing to see here.
In reality, the Iranian regime has been taught a lesson about Israeli air superiority that it is unlikely to forget. But the script is clear. Iran has not been dealt another humiliating blow that it is duty-bound to avenge.
The prospect of regional war sucking in outside powers and engulfing the middle east feels more distant today whatever the fireworks over Tehran.